The biggest fantasy football busts of 2025 caught us off guard — what...

The biggest fantasy football busts of 2025 caught us off guard — what…

One of my favourite film sequence throughout my late high faculty and early faculty days was The Matrix. Back then, the martial arts sequences (I do know kung-fu) had me on the edge of my seat. And there’s in all probability an image floating round the web someplace of me dressed as Morpheus for Halloween. But afterward, the concept of alternative and Neo’s conversations with The Oracle got here again to me at this point of the fantasy season.

I’ve made lots of flawed calls throughout the course of the 2025 season. Just watch the compilation the crew put together after Justin Boone ran away with the Primetime Picks section. But whenever you’re in the thick of it, there’s always another week to work out — a new set of angles to think about. Now, with some time on our palms, let’s undergo some of this 12 months’s biggest busts. And not just why we made the alternative, however also what it’d take for us to think about them again in ‘26.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings (Draft Rank: WR2, EOS Rank: WR26)

Let’s be sincere with each other right here. Everybody who drafted Justin Jefferson in the early first round knew the dangers along with his state of affairs. But his ADP, at worst, indicated that we have been keen to push the considerations coming out of training camp apart. Besides, HC Kevin O’Connell had constructed up belief within the fanbase and fantasy community over the years. From Kirk Cousins to “The Passtronaut Game,” O’Connell’s standing as a QB whisperer was untarnished. And to start the season, the outcomes have been favorable for people who took the plunge on Jefferson:

Week 1 was about pretty much as good a season-opener as the Vikings and fantasy people might’ve hoped. Jefferson had a 39% goal share, caught JJ McCarthy’s first TD and the Vikings gained in primetime. However, McCarthy’s peripherals set off alarm bells. He averaged -0.53 EPA per dropback with a 39.1% passing success fee on just 20 makes an attempt. In other phrases, what we noticed wasn’t sustainable. However, no matter development plans O’Connell had for McCarthy went out the window, leaving Jefferson in the worst state of affairs doable.

w/ Wentz: 29.4% (goal share), 68% (catchable goal fee), 18.2 (PPR PPG)

w/ McCarthy: 30.4%, 60%, 9.4

w/ Brosmer: 25.6%, 65%, 4.7

I introduced this up again in Week 8, totally acknowledging that Carson Wentz was a catastrophe, however he at the very least knew how one can get the ball to Jefferson. I’m certain people with Jefferson on their roster went by the same course of each week. They’d see him averaging 8.2 targets per game (tied for ninth-most among receivers), verify the matchup and pray for a landing.

His downside wasn’t quantity. It was both an inaccurate throw or an ill-timed miscue that dragged him down. But (hopefully) those are issues the QB and WR can work on over the offseason.

For proper now, I’m assuming McCarthy (with a healthy Christian Darrisaw and a plan to mitigate Ryan Kelly’s potential retirement) might be the Week 1 starter. With an offseason to get proper, news of the triumvirate of McCarthy, O’Connell and Jefferson getting together to determine out what ideas the on-field duo are most comfy with would get me again on board. The two discovered a rhythm in Week 16, with Jefferson operating his second-most snaps from the slot and McCarthy triggering to throw quicker than he had all season (2.65 seconds). If they will use that game as the blueprint for designing the offense for 2026, Jefferson’s ADP might be price the price.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (Draft Rank: WR9, EOS Rank: WR44)

As I’ve often said, progress isn’t linear. The success a participant accrues one 12 months gained’t always translate to the next, particularly if the state of affairs modifications. And it did for Brian Thomas Jr. in his second 12 months. But the changes have been purported to be optimistic.

First, he’d be getting his QB again. Trevor Lawrence and the then-rookie performed together for half of the season before a shoulder injury and concussion put TLaw on IR. However, even with Mac Jones taking over, Thomas ranked in the top 5 in yards per route run by season’s end. He confirmed the ability to win at every level as a route runner. Bringing in Liam Coen as the play-caller was all we would have liked to see to maintain Thomas as a staple of the 1-2 flip in drafts.

But there have been issues from the start.

I might excuse a 25% goal fee in Week 1, after watching Thomas soar to 35% of the seems to shut out ‘24. Jacksonville just traded up to add Travis Hunter. The target distribution would take some time to get right. But catching just one of the seven balls thrown his way was a red flag. And a Week 2 wrist injury, causing Coen to field questions about Thomas’ effort, didn’t assist issues. So, with another mouth to feed and a bruised wrist (and ego), the second-year receiver took a step again despite the related workload.

Target Rate (Weeks 1-7): 21.3% (2024), 21.8% (2025)

Slot Snap Rate: 22.9%, 21.9%

Now, the blame wasn’t all on the receiver. Lawrence ranked twenty fourth in adjusted completion share over the same span, with misfires to Hunter and everybody else. But it didn’t deter Coen from testing what labored best.

Against the 49ers, Thomas primarily performed on the perimeter, however in the brief and intermediate elements of the area (9.7 air yards per goal). Lawrence and Thomas began to get in sync on a number of out-breaking routes, however still no touchdowns. A pair of weeks later, Thomas was in the slot for 33.3% and 44.4% of his targets, avoiding the brunt of the Seahawks’ and Rams’ coverage and at last discovering the end zone. The loss of Hunter and Thomas’ high-ankle sprain delayed the trio from getting the much-needed reps required for this offense. But one Jakobi Meyers commerce later, and we’re beginning to see what works for BTJ in Year 2.

Sometimes the best resolution is the easiest one. What’s a method to make use of a 6’3”-209-lbs receiver who can run a 4.33 40-yard sprint? Send him downfield!

Since Thomas’ Week 13 return, 15 of his 26 targets have come on out-breakers or vertical routes. He’s averaging 17.8 air yards per goal. But, more importantly, his catch fee is as much as 57.7% with just one fewer first down than Parker Washington. I’m excited to see how the Jags carry out in the playoffs, however the bigger query is what to anticipate next 12 months.

Hunter must be again in the lineup, and Meyers received a multi-year extension. These are good issues for a corporation, however robust for fantasy because Thomas is already on the path to getting again in sync with Lawrence as the team’s X-receiver. And with the personnel in place, there’s not a lot to recommend that’ll change. But Thomas does have two issues working in his favor. One, he can function across the center of the area, opening up more ideas for him in the future. Plus, Lawrence is still as aggressive as ever. At 9.5 air yards per try, there’ll be sufficient targets for Thomas to remain in the low-end WR2, high-end WR3 dialog for 2026.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers (Draft Rank: WR11, EOS Rank: WR27)

I’ll discuss to Matt Harmon about this, however we must always provide you with another receiver archetype. Harmon’s been the best at contextualizing WR play, with it now being understood that outdoors pass-catchers are sometimes playing a different sport than the guys on the inside. But then again, Ladd McConkey is likely to be difficult that concept.

There have been 12 receivers that lined up in the slot on more than half of their snaps. Of those 12, seven earned more than 5 targets per game. See in case you can spot the distinction.

DeVonta Smith: 6.8 (Targets per Game), 11.9 (Receiving aDOT)

Wan’Dale Robinson: 8.8, 8.5

Hopefully, the clip gave it away. In any case, McConkey has the “coveted” slot function that we’ve cherished for other WRs in the past, however each he and Smith are downfield threats from their pre-snap alignment. That’s purported to be the simple job! For reference, when Ja’Marr Chase goes to the inside, his aDOT drops to 4.2 air yards, and he has a 73.3% catch fee. Meanwhile, we’re just hoping McConkey sees the ball thrown his method. At a 26% goal fee to end his rookie campaign, we didn’t suppose alternatives could be onerous to come back by.

However, we anticipated him to be Justin Herbert’s only choice when focusing on the intermediate and deep elements of the area. We have been flawed.

Target Share (on throws of 5 or more air yards): 24.2% (McConkey), 18.4% (Quentin Johnston)

Yards per Route Run: 2.1, 2.5

Quentin Johnston’s ascension into being a dependable choice has been one of the brilliant spots for the Chargers. Even if the third-year receiver performs on the boundary, his ability to come back down with contested catches (relative to the earlier two years) and create first downs (just eight fewer than McConkey, with two fewer games performed) has unfold the Chargers’ passing game out. And that’s without even mentioning Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden II popping up throughout the 12 months. Plus, I’m assuming most will point to L.A/.’s offensive line (or lack thereof) as the purpose behind the shakeup for the former Bulldog. But even when Herbert’s safety was healthy, the rotation wasn’t working in McConkey’s favor.

Target Share (Weeks 1-3): 19.8%, third (out of the three WRs)

Air Yard Share: 19.4%, third

Yards per Route Run: 1.37, third

Let’s assume Keenan Allen retires. But then one of Harris or Keandre Lambert-Smith soaks up some seems. Gadsen takes a step ahead. Simply put, there’ll always be any person within the receiving corps for Herbert. More importantly, an choice to permit him to assault downfield (9.4 air yards per try in the first three weeks) makes McConkey’s slot function less beneficial than others. As a result, without a drop in draft worth, it’s onerous to see him returning worth in 2026.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers (Draft Rank: RB10, EOS Rank: RB35)

The necessities for an early-round RB are simple: preserve a majority of the carries and earn a big quantity of targets. Both descriptors sound subjective, so I’ll add some thresholds.

Over the 5 seasons before ‘25, a rusher needed to average at least 15.0 PPR PPG to be in the top 10 by the end of the season. Their rush share was 53.6%. Plus, the average target rate was 10.6%, with the lowest in the sample being 3.8% (2021 Derrick Henry).

Bucky Irving’s faculty profile highlighted his pass-catching skill set, and he was as much as an 11% share at the shut of ‘24. With the former fourth-round RB at the head of a potent offense, despite losing their OC, Irving’s standing as the RB1 wasn’t unsure. And even with the team coming into the season with offensive line issues, his dual-threat ability sustained his worth.

We couldn’t have requested for a better opening script by the first 4 weeks. Baker Mayfield was under fireplace on 41.8% of his dropbacks, however still averaged the Eleventh-most makes an attempt of any starter. Accordingly, Irving was just behind Jahmyr Gibbs in targets per game. Coupled along with his 17.3 dashing makes an attempt each week, we had an RB1 on our palms.

But, of course, accidents needed to spoil all the pieces.

Now, don’t get me flawed. Irving is still enjoyable to look at. He turns what could be a loss for some right into a optimistic play at the very least as soon as every week. However, there aren’t any fashion factors in fantasy scoring (yet). Each contact has to imply one thing (e.g., like a reception for a first down) or set the team up for a score (e.g., an explosive achieve). That’s why contextualized usage can point us towards the proper gamers. And in Irving’s case, they have been indicating we must always look elsewhere.

Rushing Share: 71% (pre-injury), 64% (after return from injury)

Short-Yardage Share: 79%, 58%

Two-Minute Snaps: 75%, 54%

During the first month, the Bucs’ RBs loved a 20.1% goal share from Mayfield. But with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan again, there have been fewer makes an attempt to separate between Irving and Rachaad White. Even worse for Irving was his loss as the goal-line choice. To be truthful, Tampa only ran one operating play from inside its opponents’ 5-yard line by the first month. But that quantity has been as much as eight since Week 13, and Irving hasn’t seen the ball as soon as. Sean Tucker (7 carries) and White (1) have that job. So, impartial of Tampa making it to the postseason, we’ll still have questions about Irving’s function heading into 2026.

Both White (unrestricted) and Tucker (restricted) are free brokers at the end of the season. But since neither carries a big cap hit, one or each might be again. If it’s just Irving plus another, we will project more work funneling again his method with the offseason to get healthy. However, with another campaign and no real development as a goal-line or short-yardage choice, Irving must be more of an RB2 than a top-12 choice.

Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (Draft Rank: RB15, EOS Rank: RB23)

Honestly, taking a look at Kenneth Walker III’s ranks from the draft and thru Week 17, you would make the case that he wasn’t a bust. But it doesn’t really feel that method. After an injury-riddled ‘24, Walker’s 38.6% compelled missed sort out fee was the metric fantasy analysts (me) latched onto when projecting what issues would appear like this 12 months. And we received glimpses of it throughout the season.

However, his absence gave us more time to look at Zach Charbonnet. And we (again, I) ought to’ve taken discover. Across his 5 begins during the fantasy common season, Charbonnet completed as an RB1 3 times. Sure, he benefited from a pair of brief runs for a TD. But the underlying metrics pointed to a cut up backfield lengthy before Week 1 got here round.

Rushing Success Rate (as starters in 2024): 42.5% (Walker), 47.3% (Charbonnet)

Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 3.2, 4.1

Explosive Play Rate: 6.8%, 8.8%

In both case, the attract of Walker in an outside-zone blocking scheme that OC Klint Kubiak was putting in stored the veteran RB as a staple of early/center rounds. It was truthful to query whether or not or not the new offensive employees would see Walker as the unquestioned bellcow, however a foot injury sustained in early August ought to’ve added more chilly water on the concept. But even after the bye, he couldn’t separate from Charbonnet on the same ideas that have been purported to elevate him into the RB1 dialogue.

Rushing Success Rate (on outdoors zone runs after the bye): 51.9% (Charbonnet), 27.9% (Walker)

Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 5.9, 4.4

Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 37.0%, 39.5%

My hope for Walker is a change in surroundings for 2026. He’s one of 16 gamers on Seattle’s roster who might be free brokers after the season. Five of that are on the defensive aspect with over 500 snaps this season. With HC Mike Macdonald being a defensive coach, prioritizing his defenders and letting Walker check the market would make sense. Minnesota, Kansas City and Jacksonville (assuming the Jaguars transfer on from Travis Etienne Jr.) could be supreme touchdown spots for a rusher with Walker’s imaginative and prescient and utility in the passing game.

However, if he re-signs with Seattle, it’d be onerous to count on something different than what we noticed in 2025.

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The biggest fantasy football busts of 2025 caught us off guard — what…