SpaceX’s IPO could open the floodgates — and secondaries are booming in the meantime

SpaceX’s IPO could open the floodgates — and secondaries are booming in the meantime

SpaceX is reportedly lining up 4 major Wall Street banks for a possible 2026 IPO — a transfer that could sign the long-awaited reopening of the public markets after a years-long IPO drought.

In the meantime, late-stage non-public firms like SpaceX are discovering other methods to create liquidity for workers and early shareholders, largely via a fast-growing secondary market.

To unpack what SpaceX’s IPO chatter means, how non-public liquidity works before a debut, and what traders are on the lookout for in today’s pre-IPO giants, we spoke with Greg Martin, managing director at Rainmaker Securities, a broker-dealer specializing in secondary share transactions for late-stage non-public firms.

You can hear right here or wherever you get your podcasts, or read the dialog below.

UPDATE: This dialog passed off before the news broke that SpaceX is contemplating merging with xAI and Tesla. TechCrunch reached out to Martin to find out how this news has affected SpaceX secondary sales. His response:

“The news that SpaceX could also be contemplating varied transactions with xAI and Tesla, has triggered a brief pause in the marketplace for SpaceX shares, as shareholders and traders kind via the implications of these potential transactions.

As each SpaceX and Tesla look to increase their enterprise identities past their core companies to mirror their future management in AI, the merger of any of these entities is more and more intriguing.“

This interview has been edited for brevity and readability.

Greg, welcome to the present. Before we dive in, are you able to share a bit about your background?

I’m founder and managing director of Rainmaker Securities, which specializes in serving to large late-stage, pre-IPO firms transact shares in the secondary market. I’m also the founding father of a secondary agency that buys non-public company shares called Archer Capital Group, and co-founder of Liquid Stock, a enterprise that helps workers and executives exercise their choices utilizing their shares as collateral. 

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June 23, 2026

I’m certain the secondaries enterprise has been booming with this IPO drought from the past couple years.

No doubt. Private firms are staying non-public for much longer now. Many of these companies — including SpaceX and other firms that can be top 30 in the S&P 500 — would traditionally have gone public years in the past.

These firms are vital in our financial system, and traders actually need entry to these firms. At the same time, there are shareholders and executives and founders who’ve been in them for a very long time and need to start seeing some liquidity from their shares, which are a really high proportion of their internet price. 

So these two forces have created a thriving secondary market. And we only see this development rising because more market cap is now housed in the non-public markets.

Do you think about the secondary markets shifting if we’ve a break in IPOs this yr?

It’s an fascinating query, because clearly when a SpaceX goes public, you could argue that $800 billion has just left the non-public system and is now in the public markets. But I believe it just will increase curiosity in more firms providing liquidity, and more traders coming into non-public markets. While SpaceX is a one-of-kind company, there are loads of firms that are being began today and that are rising very fast. I imply, three or 4 years in the past, what have been OpenAI and Anthropic valued at? Those are now over a trillion {dollars} of mixed market cap. 

I actually see the development of the alternative in the non-public secondary areas as rising general, and frankly, once we see the matriculation of SpaceX to the public markets, I believe it’s going to really improve the capital market curiosity in non-public firms.

What are some belongings you’re noticing round the SpaceX IPO?

If you suppose about the IPO market the last few years, it’s been fairly dismal since 2021, so the markets are actually ready for a bellwether company. And I believe SpaceX is clearly a bellwether company…and there’s an enormous quantity of curiosity in that company. 

SpaceX also just did a young at an $800 billion valuation, and we see a ton of curiosity on our platform at Rainmaker in persevering with to purchase into the secondary. And it’s not just SpaceX. 

We’re seeing loads of curiosity in some of the other bellwether firms, whether or not it’s ByteDance, whether or not it’s Stripe, Databricks, clearly OpenAI, Anthropic, the AI companies, Perplexity. So there may be loads of curiosity, however SpaceX, I believe, is the one that people are following the most intently. And I actually suppose it could create a reset in the IPO market if it have been to go public this yr.

What form of bid motion are you seeing in your platform?

SpaceX has continued to defy gravity. Even during the down intervals of ‘22 and ‘23, SpaceX was the one company that continued to cost up every time there was a touch of the company going public. 

We have seen a big uptick in curiosity, each from a measurement and a value point — it’s already pricing effectively above the place the last tender round was and getting nearer to that trillion and a half that that they had mentioned as a possible IPO value.  

Elon Musk famously said he wouldn’t take SpaceX public until rockets have been flying to Mars repeatedly. Why is he racing to the public markets now?

The company has been non-public for a very long time, so I wouldn’t say he’s racing to go public, although his stance has shifted.

We are in an excellent market, we’re at all-time highs across the board. SpaceX has seen a large quantity of curiosity in the non-public markets, however the non-public markets are constrained. Not every investor on the planet can entry the non-public markets. 

SpaceX has an enormous alternative in entrance of it. They dominate the rocket-launching enterprise. 

They’re constructing a tremendous Starlink enterprise. They have Starship, which has so many companies associated to it, whether or not it’s sending bulk payloads into area or logistics round the world. Now they’re speaking about constructing data facilities in area, and as a very vertically built-in company, they will handle it. 

And so it just is smart, given the constructive market dynamics and large potential alternative that SpaceX could handle across its many enterprise traces. Why not go and unlock all the remainder of the capital markets to assist them fund their companies?

SpaceX has been historically fairly tight about who can be a part of its cap desk. There are loads of national safety dangers to allow them to’t have any hyperlinks to U.S. adversaries. Will opening as much as the public markets have an effect on that?   

You could argue that it does open up that potential danger channel. I believe in the event that they do a public providing, it’ll in all probability be a sliver deal, so only 5% of their company that’s technically accessible. Now we’ll see what occurs, however a minimum of issues will probably be out in the open and publicly disclosed, to allow them to see who owns their shares. 

The query will then turn into, do any of these firms — even in the event that they’re in adversarial international locations — have any real management? If they’re just financial pursuits, that’s one thing that could be tolerated. The actuality is, Elon and a fairly tight-knit group of people will still continue to manage the company. 

You said it’s not a race to IPO, nevertheless it definitely feels that approach now, in half because of Elon Musk’s public feud with Sam Altman, who’s also chasing near a $1 trillion IPO. Altman is also seeking to purchase Stoke Space, while Bezos is speaking about orbital data facilities. Plenty of rivals look like converging on an analogous mission. 

SpaceX’s success goes to breed some imitation. We’ve heard now that Bezos goes to launch a communication network to compete with Starlink, however they’re a great distance behind. And OpenAI has its personal set of capital dangers in the core enterprise that they’ve to deal with. So for them to go public makes a ton of sense, because the AI commerce is still highly regarded in the public markets. They have an insatiable want for capital proper now, when you take a look at their burn charge. So there’s no point in them constraining the traders that can entry their company, because proper now they want capital. 

I believe SpaceX generally is a little more measured. They can discover the proper time when the market presents itself effectively, because they’ve a enterprise that is basically worthwhile, and they’ve dominance in their two key companies. So they’re in the driver’s seat.

If there’s any downdraft in the market, I believe they’ll keep non-public. 

It’s not all roses for SpaceX. They are going through their very own challenges launching Starship V3, and a number of of their plane have exploded over the past yr. But loads of that may not matter since this is an Elon Musk company, and those are inclined to do effectively in phrases of inventory value just off the again of his title. How do you suppose the SpaceX IPO will probably be priced relative to what its precise stability sheet says, versus the impression of Elon Musk and his empire? 

It will certainly get a premium a number of. There’s an Elon halo impact, and he’s delivered. Even though Tesla’s major revenues come from vehicles, it’s fully vertically built-in. It captures data. It now has self-driving taxis. It has Optimus robots –

It’s bought a minimal rollout of self-driving taxis and Optimus is still years away…

Robots are the future at Tesla. Tesla can be a state of the artwork manufacturing company, and Elon owns xAI, Twitter, SpaceX — these firms could be very virtuous. 

I do suppose there’s a halo impact round Elon and that creates some strain, too. So I anticipate he’ll get a premium effectively and above what typical market charges can be for a company like SpaceX, given their stability sheet and income.

I believe people consider in the future of a data heart in area that’s cooled by area and run by photo voltaic panels instantly from the solar. I imply, it sounds loopy and pie in the sky, just like going to Mars sounds loopy and pie in the sky. But if anybody can do it, Elon’s in all probability the man.

You say that, however he hasn’t really performed loads of the bizarre pie in the sky stuff that he has promised to do. In fact, others have beat him to the punch, particularly relating to full self-driving. 

That will probably be debated by traders and will probably be the place the pressure is. When you set a lot worth in the perception that one individual can exceed expectations repeatedly, that’s a big challenge. And some people is not going to be snug with that danger. 

How vital is it that SpaceX is lining up banks for a 2026 IPO?

It’s a fairly big sign. I don’t suppose they’re just playing games.

But having a dialog with banks doesn’t essentially imply the IPO is coming this yr. What are some other indicators that people could look ahead to when a company is on the brink of go public — not just SpaceX, however anybody?

Look at the people they rent and if that portends more of an IPO senior govt team versus an entrepreneurial team. If they appear actually centered on a chief accounting officer from a public company. Or if there’s a swap out and a new CFO comes in with deep public company experience. If they’re beefing up their investor relations team, accounting, authorized. 

Companies like SpaceX have had public-grade groups for a while, so I don’t suppose there’s rather a lot to study there.

Zooming out a bit bit, how would you say private-market valuations sometimes examine to what firms obtain in their IPOs?

It’s a very good signal for personal firms to pre-understand their demand. If a company didn’t have that and they principally needed to depend on a two-week advertising interval from once they file publicly or in the event that they start a street present the place they only speak to top accountants, that’s often when you may have a very troublesome pricing setting because they’re not getting correct value discovery.

So we’re actually pushing firms to really open up your non-public secondary functionality because it’s an effective way to develop value discovery effectively in advance of the IPO, to start getting people hooked up to your enterprise, to open your self as much as a broader investor base. That approach, by the time you do go in your street present, you even have a fairly good view of what your value must be, and you end up with a a lot more environment friendly IPO. 

Think about when Figma went public and traded up 200% — that’s not likely a very good IPO. That’s a company that in all probability didn’t do superb value discovery in advance. 

Walk us via how secondaries really work. Let’s say I’m a SpaceX worker with inventory choices. What are my choices before IPO? 

All non-public firms are not created equally. SpaceX has very tight controls on their cap desk, partially because they don’t need to exceed the variety of shareholders, at which point they must be a public company. And so Space X, not like most firms, runs tender gives two or thrice a yr, so there tends to be an affordable quantity of liquidity for workers. 

Now there’s also what I’d name the SPV (particular goal automobile) world that trades in SpaceX, the place people put their shares in SPVs and then commerce items in their SPVs, slightly than the shares themselves. So there really isn’t a cap desk change, however there may be an financial possession change by advantage of buying and selling items in the SPV. That’s the place most of the buying and selling in SpaceX lies. 

Whereas some firms enable buying and selling of shares instantly on their cap desk, and some firms completely prohibit all secondary transactions, which I don’t suppose is a good suggestion. That’s why people work with companies like Rainmaker, because we get to know the firms. We get to know the way they monitor and guard trades so we may help get those trades performed. We may help present liquidity for people who need it. We can present both possession of the shares or possession in the economics of the shares for traders.

You say entry to data is one among an investor’s largest issues in the secondary markets. Does Rainmaker assist present data?

We work with some firms the place we’re offered data rooms and can present entry to data. We do our personal research on something publicly accessible and have a view of provide and demand dynamics. So we’ve loads of data we are able to present, however we are able to’t share inside company data except the company permits it. Increasingly, we’re serving to firms with those processes. The more data we are able to present, the decrease the danger for traders, and that tends to open up markets. But it’s an evolving course of. These are non-public firms for a cause — they’re guarded with what they need to share, and we’re very respectful of that.

What are subtle traders on the lookout for once they purchase pre-IPO shares at this scale?

Just like a conventional investor, they’d need to have the ability to do their due diligence across financials, across administration. They definitely would really like an understanding of the cap desk — like how many shares are excellent, what’s the preferences? What does this value signify? What’s the debt? They would love to grasp what the provide and demand equilibrium is like.

The more they’ve, the better. That’s why they’re more snug with more public-facing non-public firms, like SpaceX — even without precise historic financials — than the less well-known names.

Are you seeing more of an urge for food for purchasing secondary shares from other late-stage unicorns? What firms would you point to?

We continue to see substantial demand for firms like Databricks, Stripe, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, ByteDance. The AI commerce continues to be strong, whether or not it’s Lambda Labs or Cohere, which is a Canadian company close to and pricey to my coronary heart. 

As firms sign they’re going to go public — like Discord, Motive, Canva — people get a sense that there’s going to be liquidity, and that’s once we start to see issues open. There are in all probability 20 to 30 firms on our platform that commerce fairly repeatedly, and that just continues to develop. As the IPO market begins to open up, we’re going to see that broaden. 

Like in 2021, we have been buying and selling tons of of firms, and then as the IPO market closed, and that quantity compressed. But last yr was our largest yr — we have been buying and selling over $1 billion price of secondaries.

Where can our listeners join with you on-line?

I’m on LinkedIn. They can come go to my web site, at Rainmakersecurities.com in the event that they’re seeking to promote shares, they could come to archercapg.com. If they’re seeking to exercise their choices, they could come to liquidstock.com.

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