Scott Bessent hails US-China soybeans truce — but it could be too late

Scott Bessent hails US-China soybeans truce — but it could be too late

Thanks to President Trump’s new truce with Beijing, US farmers will ship tens of hundreds of thousands of tons of soybeans to China — but analysts warn the deal might have come too late to rescue this season’s crop.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that China agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million tons yearly for each of the next three years.

The dedication was announced after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea — their first face-to-face in six years — to de-escalate commerce tensions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping dedicated to buying tens of hundreds of thousands of tons of US soybeans. AP

Bessent, who farms soybeans himself, told Fox Business the deal marks a “reset” that will make farmers “extremely happy.”

Still, US soybean costs dipped Thursday as merchants questioned whether or not the renewed Chinese shipments would come soon sufficient to stop a glut of the crop from piling up in storage before South American harvests hit the market early next 12 months.

“China will likely switch back to Brazil in late winter or early spring when that crop comes on the market, but hopefully return to the US in fall 2026,” said Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

China sometimes shifts to cheaper Brazilian and Argentine soybeans by late February, which means the US window to ship new orders is slender, he explained.

Analysts also cautioned that Beijing’s multi-year pledges might be tough to implement.

“[It’s] unclear as to the enforceability of the agreement since we haven’t seen the text,” said Glauber, a former USDA chief.

With some particulars of the soybean deal unclear, Arlan Suderman of StoneX Financial said Bessent’s 12-million-ton determine possible applies only via January.

It’s also not identified whether or not the tonnage represents new enterprise or a restatement of current sales, Suderman famous.

Analysts warn that the truce might have come too late to rescue this season’s crop. REUTERS

If the deal only generates six million metric tons of new enterprise, “ending stocks (the amount of soybeans left over in US supply at the end of a marketing year) could reach nearly 500 million bushels, arguing for lower cash prices,” acknowledged Suderman, StoneX’s chief commodities economist.

Glauber remarked that the truce might provide restricted aid for this crop 12 months.

“The announced 12 million metric ton volume for 2025 will help, but it remains far below ‘normal’ trade levels,” he said.

“The 25 million ton targets for 2026 and 2027 are near recent levels but still significantly below trade over the past five years.”

Glauber said the timing of China’s shopping for spree will be essential.

“It is still relatively early in the marketing year,” he said.

“Farmers have been holding onto grain in hopes of a deal with China. I would expect soybeans to start moving to market, particularly with the increase in prices.”

This week’s new US-China settlement consists of tariff reductions, a pause on uncommon earth export restrictions and Beijing’s promise to tighten controls on chemical compounds used to make fentanyl.

President Trump told reporters the assembly with Xi was “a 12 out of 10,” while Bessent said the framework will “restore balance” to agricultural markets. REUTERS

The US agreed to scale back tariffs on Chinese items by 10% — to 47% — while suspending plans for an extra 100% levy.

The renewed soybean commerce reverses months of hostility that halted Chinese purchases and battered US farm exports. In August, Beijing sourced a file 12.2 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, according to data from the Rosario Board of Trade.

Analysts predicted that China would end the 2024–25 season with more than 100 million tons of complete imports — leaving it briefly oversupplied.

The White House’s settlement comes amid mounting political strain from farm states that have been hit hardest by the commerce struggle.

Bessent, a former hedge fund supervisor, has repeatedly solid himself as an advocate for rural producers, telling CBS earlier this week that he “felt the pain” as a soybean farmer himself.

For now, specialists are taking a wait-and-see strategy to the new soybean settlement.

China’s 25-million-ton annual dedication represents less than the 58% of promised imports the nation fulfilled under the 2020 “Phase One” accord, according to Suderman, who said “cautious optimism” is warranted only if Beijing follows via.

Suderman predicted China would use the settlement to “significantly build its reserves” with US beans while sustaining long-term reliance on South American suppliers.

“Brazilian soybeans are not allowed into China’s reserves,” he said, “so this is China’s opportunity to build the reserves once and for all.”

Still, merchants say the truce provides the US respiration room as biofuel demand grows and home processors take up more of the soybean crop.

The deal covers US grain sorghum, a “win for Plains farmers,” said Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Leaders didn’t share the tonnage of sorghum concerned.

The final textual content of the Trump–Xi settlement is predicted to be signed next week.

Glauber said merchants ought to watch Gulf and Pacific Northwest port inspections and the US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales reviews — “presuming the current funding impasse is solved” — to gauge whether or not shipments are selecting up.

Trump told reporters his assembly with Xi was “a 12 out of 10,” while Bessent said the framework will “restore balance” to agricultural markets.

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