Premier League predictions and best bets: Destruction derby?…

Premier League predictions and best bets: Destruction derby?…

Our soccer betting professional Jones Knows offers his perception across the Premier League weekend and ideas Manchester City to win an exhilarating Manchester derby.

Manchester United vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports

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Watch the Manchester derby live on Saturday January 17, kickoff 12:30pm

Pep Guardiola is having fun with playing together with his shiny new toy.

Antonie Semenyo has hit the floor working at Manchester City and his anytime goalscorer angle for this Manchester derby at 15/8 with Sky Bet actually appeals.

What actually stood out in the win at Newcastle was how different Semenyo makes this Manchester City assault look. City have brilliance, management and construction coming out of their ears however what they do not always have is uncooked, aggressive directness. Semenyo brings that in bucketloads.

Defenders are obsessive about Erling Haaland – that is only going to assist Semenyo. It creates pockets of area and Semenyo is intelligent sufficient and aggressive sufficient to use them. Whether he is beginning broad left, drifting inside from the proper or ghosting in round Haaland, he is consistently sniffing hazard slightly than ready for it.

And, for no matter purpose, area appears to open up for him against Manchester United and he revels in it. Semenyo has scored in his last three appearances against United, including that bonkers 4-4 draw at Old Trafford earlier this season.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Antonie Semenyo to score (15/8 with Sky Bet)

Chelsea vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

Brentford rocking up at Stamford Bridge does not really feel like a mismatch anymore – in fact, it is turning into a fixture they quietly sit up for. They’ve misplaced just as soon as of their last eight visits across west London and that tells you all the pieces about the mentality of this team. There isn’t any worry.

And proper now, they’re completely buzzing.

Brentford are in the center of their best unbeaten Premier League run of the season – six games without defeat, profitable 4 of the last 5. And since December 14, no Premier League team has picked up more factors than the Bees (14). They are 11/10 with Sky Bet on the double probability.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Leeds vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm

Leeds are an awesome watch and their games are fairly chaotic by design. They play on the edge, get in your face and they ask questions of the opposition, however they also invite strain. Across their last 18 fixtures their games are averaging 3.5 objectives and they’ve stored just one clear sheet in that interval.

Fulham arrive as the excellent dance accomplice to punt on objectives with over 2.5 wanting very beneficiant at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

They’ve scored of their last 12 matches across all competitions, displaying a level of attacking consistency that travels nicely. Marco Silva’s facet do not want large dominance to search out the web both – they’re sharp in transition, intelligent in the half-spaces and harmful from broad areas.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 objectives (11/10 with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

Arne Slot’s Liverpool are starting to appear like a severe team again.

The big shift has come of their construction in defence. Slot has clearly prioritised management without the ball, giving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate correct safety in entrance of them slightly than leaving them uncovered, which in flip has minimize out the foolish errors costing them objectives.

Across their last eight games, Liverpool have conceded just 5 objectives. That’s not smoke and mirrors both. The anticipated objectives against data backs it up properly at 0.8 per 90, pointing to a facet that is limiting high-quality possibilities slightly than counting on last-ditch defending or goalkeeping heroics.

When you mix Liverpool’s improved defensive course of with Burnley’s restricted attacking risk, Liverpool to win to nil shapes up as a shrewd play at 10/11 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Sunderland vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

Crystal Palace arrive off the again of that damaging FA Cup exit, knocked out in the third round by non-league Macclesfield. The instinctive response is to anticipate a fierce response. But historical past strongly pushes again against that concept.

Looking at the last 13 Premier League groups dumped out by League One opposition or below at that stage, the next-game document reads poorly: three wins, 4 attracts and six defeats. And even those three wins had been by the naked minimal – a single-goal margin. There’s no proof of a bounce-back surge. If something, the hangover lingers.

Sunderland stay unbeaten at house this season – a run constructed on vitality, construction and a crowd that turns the Stadium of Light into a really uncomfortable place to go to. They look an awesome worth on the draw no wager at 10/11 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Tottenham vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm

Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are the livewires for West Ham. Stop them, and you largely cease West Ham.

The drawback for the guests is that they’re working right into a Tottenham facet particularly designed to take that weapon away.

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Speaking on the Transfer Talk Podcast, The Athletic’s Dan Kilpatrick explains why, despite Conor Gallagher being an excellent possibility for Tottenham Hotspur, it raises questions about the squad Thomas Frank is constructing

One of the defining traits of Thomas Frank’s Spurs is how nicely they handle transition moments. They do not enable games to turn into stretched, they get better their form shortly and they suffocate counter-attacks before they ever get going. That’s backed up by the numbers.

Across the season, Spurs have conceded the second-fewest fast breaks in the league (11) – and crucially, they have not conceded a single purpose from a fast break.

There’s also a really strong angle under Frank in that 9 of his 10 wins as Spurs boss have come to nil. When Tottenham win, they do not just win, they shut the door. It’s 2/1 with Sky Bet to land again.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

Gabriel Magalhaes is quietly turning into a magnet for fouls. Not because he is theatrical, however because of how Arsenal use him. He steps in aggressively during build-up, carries the ball ahead into strain and is consistently concerned in bodily duels at set items. That mixture naturally invitations contact and referees have been pleased to blow the whistle.

The current numbers underline that pattern. Gabriel has been fouled at the very least as soon as in 9 of his last 10 begins, averaging 1.53 fouls drawn per 90. That’s a healthy baseline for a centre-back, and it places the 2+ fouls line nicely within attain in the proper sort of game at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Here, he is developing against Igor Jesus.

The Forest striker is aggressive, uncooked and still studying when to step in and when to again off. He’s dedicated 22 fouls across his current matches.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Gabriel to be fouled +2 instances (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!

Wolves have quietly turn into a really tough team to score against. The standout pattern of their current performances is defensive enchancment, and it is backed up by severe underlying numbers.

Across their last six games, only Arsenal can better Wolves’ anticipated objectives against strategy of 0.99 per 90. That’s elite territory. Wolves have confronted Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in that spell. So while the pattern dimension is small, the high quality of opposition provides those numbers real credibility.

We know Newcastle are a really different proposition away from St James’ Park – and it is the attacking drop-off that’s most placing. In their last 17 Premier League away games, they’ve scored more than 1.5 objectives just 3 times.

On common, Newcastle are managing just 1.2 objectives per away game in that run, struggling to generate sustained strain or high-quality possibilities on their travels. The 6/5 with Sky Bet on them scoring under 1.5 objectives again on the street appears to be like a winner in ready.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!

David Moyes’ document away from house against top-level opposition is horrendous.

Going all the approach again to his West Ham days, his document away at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City reads 20 losses from 21 games. It’s a brutal return.

Those games are inclined to comply with the same script too: sit deep, restrict harm, slow the tempo and hope to remain in the contest for so long as attainable. Now, this fixture does not technically fall into that bracket – however at what point will we start calling Aston Villa an elite house facet?

Villa Park has turn into a fortress. They’ve gained their last 11 house games, a run that contains assertion victories over Arsenal and Manchester City. The depth, construction and perception Unai Emery has created there’s proper up there with the very best in the league.

Moyes’ away games are hardly ever chaotic though. Since returning to Everton, just two of his 20 away matches have gone over 3.5 objectives, with the common sitting at just 1.8 objectives per 90. That’s why combining a Villa win and under 3.5 objectives is sensible at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Brighton vs Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Bournemouth’s away games this season are bonkers. They’re averaging 4.8 objectives per game on the street. Nope, not a typo. Yes, nearly 5 objectives per game.

The markets are totally aligned for objectives in this one though, which naturally pushes us towards the anytime goalscorer angle.

And who better to focus on than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is beginning to appear like his previous sparky, nightmare-for-defenders self. His motion, bursts in behind and intuition for purpose are all again in proof – as shown by his purpose vs Manchester City.

History provides us even more confidence. Mitoma has scored 5 objectives in his last six games against Bournemouth – that little bit of a psychological edge over the opposition is not factored into the costs at 5/2 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BET BET: Karou Mitoma to score (5/2 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ best bets…

1pt double on Antonie Semenyo & Karou Mitoma each to score (9/1 with Sky Bet)

1pt double on over 2.5 objectives in Leeds vs Fulham & Aston Villa to win and under 3.5 objectives (7/2 with Sky Bet)

1pt on Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)

1pt on Gabriel to win +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss document 25/26

Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L

Matchday One
0
-1
-1

Matchday Two
0
-1
-2

Matchday Three
0
-1
-3

Matchday Four
0
-1
-4

Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75

Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75

Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75

Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75

Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75

Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75

Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75

Matchday 12
-1
-1
-14.75

Matchday 13
-2
0
-16.75

Matchday 14
-1
-2
-19.75

Matchday 15
0
-1
-20.75

Matchday 16
0
-1
-21.75

Matchday 17
0
-1
-22.75

Matchday 18
0
-1
-23.75

Matchday 19
0
-1
-24.75

Matchday 20
-1
–
-25.75

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