Premier League predictions and best bets: Aston Villa’s slide to…

Premier League predictions and best bets: Aston Villa’s slide to…

Our soccer betting professional Jones Knows tipped 4 winners from 4 bets on Tuesday night time, what’s on his radar in the Premier League on Wednesday?

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Aston Villa vs Chelsea, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Aston Villa are a team to oppose proper now while their engine room stays out of action. The absence of John McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara strips them of management, progression and chew in considered one of the most important areas of the pitch.

Without that trio, Villa look stale. Possession is slower. The press lacks cohesion. The intent just is not there.

The outcomes again it up. One win in six, including a defeat to Wolves, reads even worse if you notice none of those six opponents sit inside the top six of the Premier League. This wasn’t a brutal run of fixtures – it is a downturn in performance ranges.

What’s fascinating, though, is that Villa’s defensive course of hasn’t fully collapsed. Those six matches have averaged just two objectives per game. They’re not being blown away – they’re just missing spark.

Villa’s current games recommend lower-scoring affairs.

The 5/2 with Sky Bet for Chelsea to win and under 3.5 objectives neatly dovetails with those current tendencies. It permits for a 1-0, 2-0 or even 2-1 away victory – outcomes that really feel far more believable than a goal-fest given Villa’s current limitations.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Brighton vs Arsenal, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Piero Hincapie has been fouled no less than as soon as in 9 of his last 10 begins at left-back for Arsenal if you embody the super-sub concession with Sky Bet. A participant ticking alongside at a 90 per cent strike fee in the position brings about a consistency that presents an excellent funding alternative.

He’s an excellent salesman on the subject of fouls. Playing able the place he’s studying on the job means he will get himself into difficult conditions when confronted with strain. His reply to them? Hit the deck under contact. It’s the fashionable approach.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Arsenal’s match against Chelsea in the Premier League.

This ability to win fouls is just not new both. During his time at Bayer Leverkusen, he drew 1.4 fouls per 90 last season – a strong quantity across a big pattern measurement. Brighton rank third for fouls this season in the Premier League (12.6 per game) so Hincape ought to discover many alternatives to showcase his foul-drawing expertise. He is 2/1 with Sky Bet to win +2 fouls.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Fulham vs West Ham, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

If you are looking for a game that might get unfastened this midweek, this is your spot.

Fulham matches have gotten a magnet for objectives. Ten of their last 11 have rewarded over 2.5 backers. When their games stretch, they actually stretch. And when that occurs, the totals are inclined to observe.

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Highlights from the Premier League match between Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur.

That makes the ‘over 2.5 objectives and each groups to score’ angle at Evens with Sky Bet notably interesting.

West Ham arrive with real attacking risk of their very own. Crysencio Summerville and Jarrod Bowen present tempo and incision from vast and central areas, giving them the ability to harm groups in transition or sustained strain.

Across their last 9 matches, West Ham are scoring at 1.7 objectives per game. The anticipated objectives data is even stronger at 2.05 per match. Those are usually not numbers you’d affiliate with a aspect priced up like relegation fodder, they’re creating probabilities at a top-half fee.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Manchester City have conceded 11 or more pictures in each of their last seven Premier League matches, delivery a mean of 12.8 efforts per game in that run. That’s not classic Pep Guardiola management. Yet, the markets are sleeping on this pattern.

Even Wolves managed to hit the 11-shot mark at a pleasant worth, which tells you this is not just a one-off blip – it is a sample. City are giving up territory, and if you quit territory in the Premier League, you quit pictures.

Across their last eight matches, Nottingham Forest have averaged a chunky 18.5 pictures per game. That’s big quantity. They’re playing with bravery, committing numbers ahead, and crucially for this guess, pulling the set off often. That’s what the strain of relegation can do to a team.

The odds for Forest to have 11 or more pictures at 10/11 with Sky Bet charges as a really tempting wager.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Newcastle vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Since coming back from injury, Harry Maguire has added a more streetwise aspect to his game. He’s not just hoofing it clear or standing tall – he is anticipating, positioning and inviting contact in methods that are seeing him win more fouls than his long-term averages would recommend. The algorithms and markets are still catching up.

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Harry Maguire is trending on social media for claiming he was kicked in the head by Crystal Palace’s Jorgen Strand Larsen, however replays present that was not the case – take a better look!

The numbers are compelling. He’s been fouled 11 instances across his last seven matches – an enormous common for a centre-back. Even more spectacular, he is hit the 2+ fouls gained line in 4 of those matches, including the last three on the spin. That reveals consistency, one thing which is significant when trusting a line of type in betting.

Against Newcastle, there’s every cause to count on related behaviour. Maguire shall be drawn into duels, requested to step into midfield and cowl runners in behind. He’ll face direct challenges, and with Newcastle’s urgent model, fouls are virtually baked in.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Harry Maguire +2 fouls gained (5/2 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, Thursday 8pm

New Tottenham boss Igor Tudor likes his groups to play aggressively. His stints at Lazio and Juventus noticed spikes in fouls per 90, and that strategy has began right here in north London. Spurs have dedicated 31 fouls across the two games since Tudor arrived.

Radu Dragusin has picked up the mantle of rashness in the absence of the suspended Cristian Romero. He’s made seven fouls in his last three matches. When cool heads are required in the scenario Spurs discover themselves in, the strategy of Dragusin is not precisely serving to calm the nerves.

Dragusin’s place, temperament and Tudor’s high-intensity defensive setup all point towards him selecting up a number of fouls yet again.

At 7/2 with Sky Bet for +2 fouls, the market is just not totally reflecting how often Dragusin is being pressured into challenges and making them under Tudor’s system. Two or more fouls in this conflict seems properly within vary.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Radu Dragusin +2 fouls dedicated (7/2 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Best Bet…

1pt treble on: Alex Scott +2 pictures, Harry Maguire +2 fouls gained & Radu Dragusin +2 fouls dedicated (33/1 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss document 25/26

Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L

Matchday One
0
-1
-1

Matchday Two
0
-1
-2

Matchday Three
0
-1
-3

Matchday Four
0
-1
-4

Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75

Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75

Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75

Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75

Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75

Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75

Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75

Matchday 12
-1
-1
-14.75

Matchday 13
-2
0
-16.75

Matchday 14
-1
-2
-19.75

Matchday 15
0
-1
-20.75

Matchday 16
0
-1
-21.75

Matchday 17
0
-1
-22.75

Matchday 18
0
-1
-23.75

Matchday 19
0
-1
-24.75

Matchday 20
-1
0
-25.75

Matchday 21
-4
0
-29.75

Matchday 22
0
-1
-30.75

Matchday 23
0
-1
-31.75

Matchday 24
-1
-1
-33.75

Matchday 25
-1
-1
-35.75

Matchday 26
-1
-1
-37.75

Matchday 27
-2
-1
-40.75

Matchday 28
-1
-1
-42.75

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