Premier League predictions and best bets: Arsenal title dream to…

Premier League predictions and best bets: Arsenal title dream to…

Our soccer betting professional Jones Knows gives his perception across the Premier League weekend.

Many can be Brighton’s value right here of 17/20 with Sky Bet and get tempted in. Not me.

This stays a kind of tactical match-up the place taking up the Seagulls is a worthwhile long-term strategy. Brighton, who’re on a run of just one win in 10 Premier League games, might be sensible in transition and deadly when groups have interaction them high however when the opponent drops right into a compact mid-to-low block, that fluency can drain away.

Under Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton have received only 4 of their last 18 games the place the opposition play over 15 per cent of all their passes lengthy. Everton under David Moyes will tick that tactical box.

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And the Toffees also carry more menace on the break than they’re often given credit score for, particularly from huge areas.

When matches develop into scrappy, Everton thrive, as shown of their win at Aston Villa. I like the away win at 3/1 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Winning a Premier League title is less about ability at this stage and more about emotional administration and Arsenal are starting to appear to be a team considering about the penalties quite than the course of.

This fixture falls at an ungainly second for this Arsenal team as Elland Road will poke at their insecurities in an atmosphere full of tempo and aggression. If Arsenal have been playing with freedom, you’d again them to climate the storm and be reliable at 8/15 with Sky Bet to win this game. Right now, I’m not so certain.

The double probability on Leeds seems a extremely tempting angle at 6/4 with Sky Bet, protecting each the win and the draw.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Wolves vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm

There’s a sense the market has barely misplaced its stability when assessing Bournemouth in this spot. Yes, the uncooked numbers soar off the web page, 4.5 objectives per away game this season is eye-catching, however context is all the things.

Those matches have often been performed on Bournemouth’s phrases with open games, stretched constructions and opponents blissful to commerce punches. This journey to Molineux seems a really different check.

Wolves have quietly develop into one among the league’s best sides at dictating how games are performed. Their defensive course of over current weeks has been wonderful and goalmouth action has tended to dry up.

They pressure opponents into low-quality possibilities and squeeze games into tight margins. That’s precisely the sort of atmosphere Bournemouth wrestle to show into shootouts. This seems a terrific alternative to again a Wolves game to go under 2.5 objectives at an odds-against value of 11/10 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Chelsea vs West Ham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

There’s a card angle right here that feels prefer it’s slipped by means of the pricing cracks. This London derby has loads of needle baked into it anyway, however one particular match-up jumps off the web page: Marc Cucurella vs Jarrod Bowen.

Bowen is one among the most efficient foul-winners in the Premier League when remoted one-on-one. He attracts contact cleverly, carries the ball aggressively and forces defenders into recovery challenges. The data backs it up. Bowen has already drawn 10 playing cards from opponents this season, more than any other participant in the league.

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Marc Cucurella is 100/30 with Sky Bet to be carded

Now drop Cucurella into that situation. He’s front-footed, emotional and likes to have interaction early. He would not draw back from contact and is more than keen to cease an assault if he feels uncovered – as showcased by back-to-back bookings in his last two begins at dwelling.

Cucurella to be carded at 100/30 with Sky Bet feels big if you layer in Bowen’s observe file of forcing bookings and the chance of repeated defensive duels down Chelsea’s left.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Marc Cucurella to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet)

Saturday thirty first January 5:00pm

Kick off 5:30pm

Liverpool vs Newcastle, Saturday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

With Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley each unavailable, Arne Slot may very well be compelled right into a workaround at right-back and Wataru Endo is the apparent emergency possibility after filling in there in midweek. That positional tweak utterly modifications how his card value ought to be seen.

Endo is aggressive, front-footed and far more snug moving into duels than jockeying huge in house. Drop him right into a full-back function and you are asking him to defend large areas against tempo and direct working. And Newcastle are one among the worst opponents you possibly can face when studying on the job out huge.

If Endo does start at right-back, he’ll be coping with Anthony Gordon, doubtlessly supported by Lewis Hall, which is a nightmare match-up profile. Gordon drives straight at defenders and invitations contact. The numbers underline that menace as six different opponents have been carded against Gordon in the Premier League this season. Endo’s value of 5/2 with Sky Bet to be carded, if he begins as full-back, is a real runner.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Wataru Endo to be carded (5/2 with Sky Bet)

Aston Villa vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

This is one among those costs that makes you cease, wash your face with chilly water and examine you are studying it accurately.

Aston Villa to win at 21/20 with Sky Bet feels very beneficiant contemplating what this team have been telling us for months.

Since going winless of their opening 5 Premier League games, Villa have been nothing in need of elite. They’ve taken 43 factors from 18 matches, title-challenger output little question and no facet in the division have collected more factors over that interval. That’s not a brief sizzling streak both. It’s a pattern of outcomes to respect. It’s sustained excellence.

Brentford, meanwhile, stay a facet you need to oppose on their travels. Only backside club Wolves have suffered more away defeats in the Premier League this season (8). Home win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Aston Villa to win (21/20 with Sky Bet)

Manchester United vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

There isn’t any better attacker of a set-piece in world soccer than Harry Maguire. And in a Premier League season the place dead-ball conditions are being mined relentlessly for objectives, Maguire goes to get his feed soon sufficient.

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Harry Maguire is 7/1 to score vs Fulham

Back in the Manchester United beginning XI, Maguire is playing with an authority that has shone brightly in the last two performances. That confidence can translate to when he ventures ahead. Maguire’s old-school dominance stays a potent betting weapon and the 7/1 with Sky Bet for him to score is value leaping on.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Harry Maguire to score (7/1 with Sky Bet)

Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

There’s a strong whiff of needle about this one. There’s lingering animosity in the air after the summer time authorized battles which resulted in Forest changing Palace in the Europa League and if you layer in the relegation context, feelings are prone to be working sizzling. That’s often when the card markets come alive.

One match-up specifically seems primed to ship.

Neco Williams is predicted to lock horns with Ismaila Sarr, and that’s a troublesome afternoon for any full-back. Sarr is relentless in one-vs-one conditions, drives straight at defenders and forces choices at tempo. The data is damning from a defensive perspective as Sarr has drawn 21 playing cards from opponents since the start of last season, with only Bruno Guimaraes accountable for more in the Premier League.

Williams seems a guess materials at 100/30 with Sky Bet to be carded in an edgy game.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Neco Williams to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

There’s no escaping the unusual relationship between these two. Spurs have received seven of the last 12 conferences and Pep Guardiola has misplaced more Premier League games against Tottenham (8) than any other opponent. On paper, that historical past screams Tottenham.

And if you see Spurs at 100/30 with Sky Bet, the temptation is clear. But Spurs at dwelling stay not possible to belief.

Instead of preventing the uncertainty, the smarter route is to isolate a participant who can still revenue from Spurs doing some issues proper and that’s the place Dominic Solanke to score at 11/4 with Sky Bet involves the get together.

He’s develop into one thing of a forgotten man, however Solanke is constructed to score in the Premier League. Goals in back-to-back games is a reminder of his abilities.

There’s also a bigger-picture motivation edge at play. With England’s ahead depth in focus, Solanke is aware of he is preventing to be a possible Harry Kane understudy this summer time for England at the World Cup.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

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Dominic Solanke is 11/4 to score vs Man City

Sunderland vs Burnley, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Sunderland stay the only Premier League team unbeaten at dwelling this season. That is wild.

But traits do snap and, in betting, timing when to step in to revenue from such a run ending is a key weapon to make use of when attempting to revenue in this game. It’s 19/5 with Sky Bet to end right here – a value on a Burnley win that is simply too big to move up.

The absence of Granit Xhaka is pivotal. We noticed precisely how fragile Sunderland might be without their midfield reference point of their worst performance of the season away at West Ham. Without Xhaka’s management, management and ability to dictate tempo, Sunderland misplaced construction, misplaced composure and have been far too straightforward to play by means of.

Burnley want wins now. So their method can be constructive and the market is dangling a really juicy carrot in the direction of us relating to their win prospects.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Jones Knows’ best bets…

1pt treble: Marc Cucurella to be carded, Aston Villa to win & Neco Williams to be carded (36/1 with Sky Bet)

1pt on: Watara Endo to be carded (5/2 with Sky Bet)

1pt on: Harry Maguire to score (7/1 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss file 25/26

Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L

Matchday One
0
-1
-1

Matchday Two
0
-1
-2

Matchday Three
0
-1
-3

Matchday Four
0
-1
-4

Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75

Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75

Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75

Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75

Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75

Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75

Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75

Matchday 12
-1
-1
-14.75

Matchday 13
-2
0
-16.75

Matchday 14
-1
-2
-19.75

Matchday 15
0
-1
-20.75

Matchday 16
0
-1
-21.75

Matchday 17
0
-1
-22.75

Matchday 18
0
-1
-23.75

Matchday 19
0
-1
-24.75

Matchday 20
-1
0
-25.75

Matchday 21
-4
0
-29.75

Matchday 22
0
-1
-30.75

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