Nifty logs longest weekly losing run since 2020 crash. Here’s how

Nifty logs longest weekly shedding run since 2020 crash. Here’s how

India’s benchmark indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, logged their sixth straight weekly loss, marking their longest shedding streak since the COVID-19 crash of April 2020, as each fell almost 5% since end-June, weighed down by U.S. tariff hikes, weak earnings, and relentless overseas investor outflows that triggered a broad-based selloff.

On Friday, the Nifty 50 fell 0.95% to 24,363.30, while the Sensex declined 0.95% to shut at 79,857.79. For the week, they shed 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. The continued decline displays persistent promoting stress across sectors, with little signal of reduction amid deteriorating global commerce relations and muted home efficiency.

Tariff shock hits exporters

Export-oriented shares led the rout after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a pointy escalation in commerce tensions, doubling tariffs on Indian exports to 50%. The transfer, retaliation for India’s continued oil commerce with Russia, delivered a recent blow to investor confidence.

Morgan Stanley warned the Indian seafood export trade alone may face a possible lack of Rs 24,000 crore. “Indian textile and apparel exporters are halting US order manufacturing due to President Trump’s tariff doubling to 50%, severely impacting their competitiveness against nations like Bangladesh and Vietnam,” the brokerage said, forecasting “export decline, job losses, and overall uncertainty in the sector.”Live EventsBeyond textiles and seafood, exporters in gems and jewelry, chemical compounds, and auto ancillaries are now grappling with halted orders and squeezed margins.

FIIs dump Indian shares

The selloff intensified as overseas institutional traders (FIIs) remained web sellers for the tenth straight session. On August 7 alone, FIIs pulled Rs 4,997.19 crore from Indian equities, taking August’s complete outflows to over Rs 15,950 crore. Since July, the exodus has crossed $4 billion.“FIIs have sold on all trading days of August, so far,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. “These weak indicators, along with the relatively high valuations in India, are triggering sustained selling by the FIIs.”Vijayakumar said, “In the present context of negative sentiments in the market caused by the tariff skirmishes between India and the U.S., FIIs are likely to continue selling in the cash market.” However, he famous that “the only saving grace is the sustained DII buying which remains strong. The strong DII buying assisted by sustained flows into mutual funds can prevent a crash in the market.”

Technical indicators level to more weak point

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, famous that the Nifty has shaped a bearish candle with a protracted higher shadow for 4 consecutive weeks—“signaling that every attempt at a rally is being met with strong selling pressure, indicating a lack of conviction among bulls and a clear dominance of bears at higher levels.”

Shah said that the Nifty is now buying and selling below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, all sloping downward, and its RSI has entered a “super bearish zone.” He said the MACD indicator also stays in bearish territory, with the MACD line below each the sign and 0 strains.

“Crucial support lies in the 24,200–24,150 zone, where the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels coincide,” Shah said. “If the index slips below 24,150, it could extend its decline to 23,750. On the upside, the 100-day EMA zone of 24,570–24,600 will act as a crucial hurdle.”

Banking sector affords little respite

The banking index mirrored broader market weak point. “The banking benchmark index Bank Nifty also ended the week on a negative note… On the weekly chart, it formed a bearish candle, indicating persistent selling pressure,” Shah said.

The index hovered close to its 100-day EMA, with assist seen at 54,950–54,850. “A sustained move below 54,850 could intensify the downtrend toward 54,000–53,900,” he warned. Resistance on the upside stands at 55,700–55,800.

Muted Q1 earnings add to gloom

Corporate earnings supplied little cowl. The Nifty IT index is down 10% over the past month, and the banking sector has shown little momentum. An Economic Times analysis revealed that India’s top 9 personal banks posted only 2.7% year-on-year revenue progress in Q1, reflecting weak credit score urge for food and sluggish macro momentum.

“There are no indications yet of a sharp uptick in earnings for FY26,” Vijayakumar said, including that the market stays each “technically and fundamentally weak.”

With overseas promoting unrelenting, global macro dangers mounting, and Q1 outcomes underwhelming, traders might have to brace for continued volatility. Unless commerce tensions ease or earnings ship a shock turnaround, the trail forward for Indian equities stays fraught with threat.

Also read | Why the inventory market fell today: Trump’s 50% tariffs on India among 5 elements behind Sensex’s slide of 765 pts, Nifty dips below 24,400

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, strategies, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t signify the views of the Economic Times)

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