Bitcoin Price To Hit $1M? Bitwise CIO Explains Why It May Happen Sooner Than We Think

Bitcoin Price To Hit $1M? Bitwise CIO Explains Why It May Happen Sooner Than We Think

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin may attain $1 million within the next decade if it captures a modest share of a quickly increasing global store-of-value market, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in a current investor memo.

The prediction implies roughly a 14-fold enhance from current ranges, as Bitcoin was buying and selling at round $69,610, down over 2% in the last week.

Bitcoin Price to $1 Million?

Hougan said Bitcoin must be evaluated as a digital store-of-value asset competing primarily with Gold.

Using that framework, he said Bitcoin’s long-term worth could be estimated by calculating the dimension of the global store-of-value market, figuring out Bitcoin’s share of that market, and dividing the ensuing worth by Bitcoin’s mounted provide of 21 million cash.

Currently, the store-of-value market is price just under $38 trillion, consisting of about $36 trillion in Gold and roughly $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin, according to Bitwise estimates.

That means Bitcoin today represents barely less than 4% of the market.

At that market dimension, Bitcoin would wish to seize more than half of the store-of-value market to achieve $1 million per coin—an consequence Hougan acknowledged can be tough.

Gold market cap | Source: Bitwise Asset Management with data from World Gold Council and Bloomberg.

However, he said the key assumption often neglected is that the market itself has grown considerably over time and will continue increasing.

Hougan pointed to Gold’s rise over the past 20 years.

Around the launch of the first U.S. gold exchange-traded fund in 2004, the whole gold market was valued at roughly $2.5 trillion.

It has since expanded to almost $40 trillion, reflecting an annual progress charge of about 13%.

If that tempo continues, Hougan estimated the global store-of-value market may develop to roughly $121 trillion within 10 years.

In that situation, Bitcoin would only must seize about 17% of the market to achieve a worth of $1 million.

Is It Possible?

While that would signify a major acquire from its current share, Hougan said institutional adoption and broader funding allocations may make the shift believable.

“A few years ago, there were no U.S. bitcoin ETFs and few institutional holders,” Hougan wrote, including that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have since turn out to be among the fastest-growing in historical past.

“…Bitcoin is owned by everyone from the Harvard endowment to the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, and Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has declined to the point that many professional investors are considering 5% allocations,” he said.

Adding: “There are still miles to go, but with these undercurrents, capturing one-sixth of the store-of-value market in 10 years doesn’t seem extreme.”

Recent exchange-traded fund (ETF) data suggests investor demand could also be shifting again towards Bitcoin.

Over the past 30 days, web flows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have turned optimistic, reversing the heavy withdrawals seen earlier in the yr.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has led the rebound, attracting about $185.8 million in current inflows.

At the same time, gold-backed ETFs have begun to see outflows following a chronic interval of strong demand.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest U.S. gold ETF, lately recorded its largest single-day withdrawal in more than two years, according to market commentary from The Kobeissi Letter.

Other Analysts See Strong Bitcoin Price Upside

Hougan’s projection comes amid a renewed wave of bullish forecasts from crypto analysts.

🚨 Bitcoin at $67k… however S2F mannequin screams $500k avg this cycle (2024-2028)! 📈 Is BTC massively undervalued & the final purchase alternative? Or is S2F damaged perpetually? 🤔 What’s your take, bull or bust? pic.twitter.com/QlBhOgSgGj

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 8, 2026

Pseudonymous analyst PlanB said Bitcoin may common round $500,000 during the current 2024–2028 market cycle under his Stock-to-Flow mannequin, which values Bitcoin based on its programmed shortage.

The mannequin implies a mean worth close to $500,000 for the cycle, suggesting Bitcoin may doubtlessly attain between $250,000 and $1 million if historic patterns repeat.

Caution Remains

Not all market observers are dashing to purchase bitcoin at current ranges.

In a current interview, Maelstrom Fund Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes said he would not buy Bitcoin today—even if he had only $1 to speculate—arguing that the next major rally will probably require a renewed wave of global liquidity.

Hayes said he’s ready for a clearer sign that central banks, significantly the U.S. Federal Reserve, are returning to aggressive financial easing.

For now, he said his portfolio is positioned defensively, break up evenly between money and gold.

“When central banks start printing money again, that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin,” he said.

In the meantime, Hayes warned that a number of macroeconomic dangers may stress markets in the close to time period, including geopolitical tensions and potential financial disruption linked to fast advances in AI.

Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and rising technology. He started his profession overlaying local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he lower his tooth on the whole lot from council conferences to lacking swans.

He rapidly rose via the ranks to turn out to be a frontline journalist at a number of of the UK’s main national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured a number of front-page exclusives.

Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI growth. With a pure curiosity and a educated eye for rising developments, he has discovered a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.

At CCN, Kurt’s work focuses on the reducing fringe of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep curiosity in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers tales that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.

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